U.S. Stocks/Market Mid-Year Outlook: Battle Symphony

  • Ongoing battles, including trade, Fed vs market, Fed vs politicians, slowdown vs. recession, bonds vs. stocks, and bulls vs. bears may continue to drive volatility.

  • Recession risk is rising, but keeping it at bay could mean rate cut(s) lead to a stronger stock market based on history.

  • Leading indicators’ rate of change rolled over last September, suggesting slower growth ahead.


Fixed Income Mid-Year Outlook: "Lower for Longer" is Back

Key Points

  • Fixed income returns should remain positive in the second half of the year, but probably won’t repeat the first half’s sharp gains.

  • The key question facing the bond market is whether the economy is just slowing down—or if it’s heading into recession.

  • The Fed is likely to cut interest rates this year, but the market may be pricing in more easing than is actually likely to happen.

  • We’ll discuss ways to potentially maximize yield in a low-yield world.


U.S. Imports from China Plunge As Other Emerging Markets Fill The Gap

Key Points

  • U.S. imports from China have plunged this year, offset by import gains for other emerging markets not subject to U.S. tariffs.

  • The rise in U.S. imports from just five emerging market countries more than offset the falloff from China, as sourcing shifts for key categories like auto parts. 

  • If this trend continues, emerging market companies may fare better than investors feared should the China tariffs continue or increase.