U.S. Stocks/Market Mid-Year Outlook: Battle Symphony
Ongoing battles, including trade, Fed vs market, Fed vs politicians, slowdown vs. recession, bonds vs. stocks, and bulls vs. bears may continue to drive volatility.
Recession risk is rising, but keeping it at bay could mean rate cut(s) lead to a stronger stock market based on history.
Leading indicators’ rate of change rolled over last September, suggesting slower growth ahead.
Fixed Income Mid-Year Outlook: "Lower for Longer" is Back
Fixed income returns should remain positive in the second half of the year, but probably won’t repeat the first half’s sharp gains.
The key question facing the bond market is whether the economy is just slowing down—or if it’s heading into recession.
The Fed is likely to cut interest rates this year, but the market may be pricing in more easing than is actually likely to happen.
We’ll discuss ways to potentially maximize yield in a low-yield world.
U.S. Imports from China Plunge As Other Emerging Markets Fill The Gap
U.S. imports from China have plunged this year, offset by import gains for other emerging markets not subject to U.S. tariffs.
The rise in U.S. imports from just five emerging market countries more than offset the falloff from China, as sourcing shifts for key categories like auto parts.
If this trend continues, emerging market companies may fare better than investors feared should the China tariffs continue or increase.